On June 2nd, a powerful explosion occurred near the Lugansk Regional State Administration, as a result of which several people died, including peaceful civilians, in addition the building of the administration was damaged, as well as adjacent territory. During this time a jet was circling the skies above the city, presumably a Su-25, which made at least one shot, which has been captured on video.
As no footage has been presented yet, in which one would be able to see, without interruption, the flight of the missile since the moment it separated from the jet until the moment it fell, several different hypotheses have been presented regarding the event. We will try to analyse the main ones.
Hypothesis: a missile from a man-portable air defence system in the square was launched at the administration building.
This hypothesis is based on webcam footage, which was made from the so-called “House with a spire” on Sovestkaya street, 64. This building offers a view on the Heroes of the Great Patriotic War Square, especially its left side, at which the building of the regional administration is located.
The footage shows that right before the explosion, a flash emerges near the monument in the square. Many have come to see it as a flash from the air defence system shot, which became the reason of further destruction and deaths.
This is not true.
This is the moment of the flash caught on webcam.
Here is this location on a panoramic shot.
Here is this location as seen from above.
You can see that the location of the flash is not right across the central entrance to the regional administration, but much closer to the camera. Therefore, if a shot had been made from there at the central part of the building (and it was the central part, especially to the left, that suffered), then the only damages would have happened along the trajectory from the location of the flash to the central part of the building. However on many videos we see that much bigger territory has been damaged. There are big sinkholes in the square, some of them in the pavement. Taking their appearance into account, the reason for their emergence was ammunition that came in from above and not the side and not at human height.
Besides, many big branches, which have fallen to the ground, are visible. Here is a video made in the square, you can see the sinkholes, the broken branches and the damaged regional administration:
At least four holes are visible on the video. Therefore they cannot have been made by a single shot from the defence system. Here is another video made from the central alley:
These shots and footage also negate the claims that the reason for the destruction was an explosion which occurred inside the building.
It looks like the first flash was the beginning of the explosions that came after it.
There is also an opinion that the man-portable air defence system operator was shooting at a Ukrainian jet, however the missile was deterred by the heat of the air conditioner hanging on the regional administration building. This is also not true. The external part of the air conditioner only emits minimal heat which cannot be fixated by the heat-detection system of the missile. The temperature of the jet turbine which the system reacts to constitutes about 600-700 degrees, the temperature of the heat traps that the jet can launch to fool the missiles constitutes 2500 degrees.
Also there is a widespread opinion that the shot was made from the roof of the SSU building, which is located on Sovetskaya street, 79. If one were to judge the trajectory only, such a shot is possible:
However this does not explain the numerous sinkholes, each of which was obviously cause by ammunition.
Hypothesis: the jet did not shoot but launched heat traps for defence against the missiles.
This is not true. Here is the moment of the shot. We see that there is not a single bright spot:
Here is a video of the shot:
Here is another:
And this is what heat traps look like, ones that burn at a temperature of 2500 degrees:
Here is the launching of the traps on video:
Translated by Mariya Shcherbinina