The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is widely linked to geopolitics; defence considerations; and Putin’s fear of a Maidan in Russia. There are more motives which could be playing a considerable role in this conflict: the “Wild West scenario,” about which many Kremlin analysts have written. Continue reading →
“…The war will start and end on the stock exchanges,” wrote “Nashi Hroshi” on March 10, commenting on the most likely development of the conflict of interests between Russia and the United States that erupted on the Crimean soil.
And thanks to reports from the oil stock exchanges as of March 13, and unfolded in this context events, we have the audacity to assert: Russia has already lost.
It became known on March 13 that the United States dumped oil from its strategic reserves into the market for the first time since 1990. An entire 5 million barrels went for sale, which is only 1% of U.S. stocks. But the effect has surpassed all expectations – crude oil futures fell 2% – up to $98 in New York. Continue reading →
The Kremlin may be using its dirty business in Crimea to hide an attempt to save its economy and to maintain its export of energy sources.
Many pundits have forgotten about the global aspect when discussing the economical component of the Russian invasion into Crimea. Yury Shubin focused on this very point.
Certain agreements concerning Iran came into force on January 20th. Iran is promising to reduce its nuclear program, while the West will have abolished sanctions by June 20, 2014 as well as its oil embargo. This would lead to an increase in Persian oil supplies by 1 million barrels per day to the level of 4 million barrels per day by June, which could considerably decrease the price per barrel. That is disadvantageous for Russia, because its budget was made using the price of 90 US dollars per barrel, and a price of lower than 60 US dollars may lead to an economic collapse. It is not so hard to imagine that the uneasy socio-political situation in Russia may become more intense (or even revolutionary). Continue reading →