Stop Supporting Terrorists! No Business with Putin’s Criminal Regime, Says London Euromaidan

Wednesday, 4 June 2014 from 18:00

Ukrainians in London demonstrated outside the Royal Automobile Club on Pall Mall, where the Russo-British Chamber of Commerce (RBCC) Business Forum 2014 ‘Russia & Britain – Building Business in the Current Climate’ will be taking place 

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On Wednesday, Ukrainians living in London demonstrated outside the Royal Automobile Club on Pall Mall, demanding the RBCC stops doing business with Putin’s criminal regime and demand the introduction of “Iran style” sanctions against Russia. Continue reading

Deutsche Bank: The Eurozone Will Endure Harsh Sanctions Against Russia

22.05.2014

German economists have calculated the possible losses from the sanctions against the Kremlin in the case of escalation of the situation in Ukraine. Their conclusion: the West can afford to be assertive.

“The economics of sanctions: the West can afford to show assertiveness,” is the name of the investigation published recently by the analytic center Deutsche Bank (DB Research). A group of experts of the biggest bank in Germany, led by its head economist David Wolkerst-Landau, calculated the possible losses from the economical sanctions against Russia, to which the European Union and the USA may resort in case of further escalation of the situation in Ukraine.

The main conclusion of the investigation is already reflected in its name: the leading Western economists are able to withstand the consequences of both the sanctions against Russia and the possible responsive action on Moscow’s part without significant losses for themselves. Only a full suspension of export to the EU of Russian energy resources or a default of the Russian Federation would constitute real danger. However both of these options are considered to be highly improbable by the German experts. Meanwhile they are pointing out the problems that may arise in individual EU states and European economical industries as a result of the ‘sanction war.’

To begin with, Deutsche Bank experts are analyzing the current state of the Russian economy. They name capital outflow as one of its typical characteristics, which has been observed in Russia for many years now, however which has increased significantly in the recent time. This is a “severe blow for the already weakened Russian economy,” emphazises the investigation. Another consequence of the conflict with Ukraine and an indirect result of the sanctions already imposed against individual people, banks and companies, was the significant price increase on financial resources for loaners from Russia.

The Russian Recession and European Export

The authors of the investigation note that as a result of devaluation of the ruble, inflation has increased on one hand. However, on the other hand, this augmented the revenues of the budget of the Russian Federation, as a result of which “the government received certain opportunities to augment state expenditures.” This will allow the Russian government to “limit the economical consequences of the further escalation of the current crisis,” notes the investigation.

“A long-term conflict in Ukraine and the continuation of uncertainty are already enough by themselves to provoke recession,” opine the experts of DB Research. However, if the West is to implement ‘significant’ financial and economical sanctions against Russia, the country, taking everything into account, “will fall into deep recession,” says the investigation. Its authors do not exclude that in this case economical stagnation in Russia may reach 10%, just how it has been after the default in 1998 or during the crisis of 2008-2009.

The possible recession in Russia will influence European exporters, however quite unequally. The fall in demand will be felt the most by “some small countries at the eastern borders of the Eurozone,” for example, Estonia and Finland, whose export to Russia constitutes over 10%. Meanwhile, for France, Italy and Spain, the losses will be insignificant, as the Russian part in their export does not surpass 2,5 percent, and the export percentage in the GDP of these countries itself is relatively small.

Risks for Germany

“The only big country of the Eurozone which has significant trade connections with Russia is Germany,” emphasizes the investigation of DB Research. 3,3% of German export go to the Russian market. It is most important for German equipment builders (5% from all export supplies) and car builders (4%). However, German clothing producers are most dependent on Russia (5,5%).

Taking this into account, even a dramatic fall of the Russian market will lead, according to the calculations of the authors of the investigation, to the slowing of economical growth in Germany within the limits of 0,5 percent points. “This should not be disregarded, however this can be dealt with,” think DB Research experts.

The Biggest Losses are Threatening French Banks

As to the financial sector, in absolute numbers the biggest risks from the “sanction war” will be suffered by French banks. Their loan demands to lenders in Russia and investments into Russian stocks constitute about 51 billion US Dollars. If one is to speak of relative numbers, the biggest measures are demonstrated by Austria, the Netherlands and Italy. Such risks of the German and Spanish banks are called “quite limited” by the authors of the investigation.

However, overall the European bank sector is much more vulnerable to the implementation of much harsher sanctions against Russia than the American or Japanese one. The worst case scenario, according to the analysts, would be Russia’s inability to pay or its full isolation from the international finance system. However even in this case the consequences for the Russian economy would be much more serious than for the Western countries, DB Research experts are convinced. – DW

http://www.dw.de/deutsche-bank-єврозона-витримає-жорсткі-санкції-проти-росії/a-17654746 Continue reading

Ukrainians in London march for peace in Vyshyvankas

On Sunday 18th May 2014 at 2.30pm: One thousand Ukrainians dressed in traditional embroidered shirts gathered outside Downing Street to take part in a March for Peace.

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As the situation in Ukraine continues to deteriorate, Ukrainians in London want to send a message to the world that they want peace in their country.

On a day where traditionally the national dress of Ukraine is celebrated, Ukrainians displayed their beautiful traditions and culture. Continue reading

London Ukrainians Demonstrate Against Immoral Investment in Russia

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Today, Thursday, 15 May around 25 Ukrainians held a demonstration outside FTSE Russian Investment Forum in London. The protesters held banners saying ‘Stop Financing Terrorists!’ ‘Do not invest in TerroRussia!’ and ‘Buying Russian bonds finances Russian bombs!’.

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Why Moscow Desperately Wants a ‘New Cold War’ – and Why There Isn’t and Won’t be One

Paul Goble, originally on Window on Eurasia

Staunton, May 9 – Moscow commentators have been denouncing the West for launching “a new cold war” against Russia, and a large share of Western commentators have assumed that this is because the Russian leadership doesn’t want one. In fact, Moscow is desperate to have that the new-old paradigm be restored at least at the level of rhetoric for at least three reasons. Continue reading

German ‘Putin’s Network’ against Ukraine (from European press)

Radiosvoboda, 06.05.2014

European newspapers inform about changes in forecasts of NATO leaders in respect of Russia’s next steps in Ukraine. As the Alliance’s Supreme Commander Philip Breedlove says, “currently Russia is unlikely to directly invade Ukraine” and predicts that Putin “heads for discrediting the Ukrainian government and organizing the riots and unrest in order to pave the way for a separatist movement”. The press also reports about U.S. financial and diplomatic ‘assault forces’ landing in Europe to coordinate new large-scale economic sanctions against Russia with the EU countries leaders. The observers also analyze Germany’s proposal to convene a new round of negotiations on Ukraine in Geneva and draw attention to the so-called ‘Putin’s network’ in Germany, which speaks out against the rights of Ukrainians to independence and justifies Russia’s annexation of Crimea.

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The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation is furious about “sanctions” of a Swiss college due to the situation in Ukraine

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation has heatedly criticized the response given to an applicant from Russia by the headmaster of a college in Lausanne, who contacted her concerning the possibility of a placement.

This response was published on the Facebook page of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation: Continue reading

EU–Russia energy co-operation successfully continues – Russia laughs at would-be sanctions from EU again

By Vitalii Usenko, April 30, 2014gas

It appears that work on the South Stream pipeline project will continue, reports ITAR-TASS. On April 29, 2014, South Stream Transport BV signed a contract for the construction of the second line of the offshore section (including the Crimean Black Sea shelf, currently occupied by Russia) of the South Stream project with Swiss company Allseas Group. The contract also foresees deepwater laying of the pipeline, so an additional contract was signed with Saipem, an Italian oil and gas contractor, to ensure construction. On the same day, Gazprom signed a memorandum on the construction of an onshore section of the South Stream in Austria, according to Alexei Miller, CEO of Gazprom. Additional agreements to build the onshore sections of the pipeline,have been signed agreement with Bulgaria, Serbia, Hungary, Greece, Slovenia, and Croatia. Continue reading

Western Sanctions versus Russian Subversion

Paul Goble, originally on Window on Eurasiafolks

Staunton, April 26 – There is an old Soviet joke that the West sends diplomats to Moscow and Moscow treats them like spies while Moscow dispatches spies to Western capitals and Western governments treatethem like diplomats, a joke that had more than a little basis in fact and that resonates now because of what Moscow is doing and how the West is responding. Continue reading